Estée Lauder (EL): Is a Major Bottom in at $48.31?
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Estée Lauder (EL) has been one of the most beaten-down consumer names over the past year — sliding from nearly $160 to below $50 in a relentless downtrend. But now, structural and momentum signals suggest that the worst may be behind us. A major bottom may already be in place, and a new uptrend could be forming — though a short-term pullback remains possible. The $53–$57 zone will be critical to hold for this bullish thesis to stay intact.
Structural Maps (Weekly & Daily)
Structural momentum maps (see below) show a series of rising troughs and flattened peaks, especially on the weekly timeframe — often a precondition for reversal setups.
Key structural observations:
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$48.31 may mark the major cycle low
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Price climbed to a recent high at $71.98
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Short-term correction likely before confirming long-term reversal
If EL pulls back toward the $57–$60 zone and holds — this would validate a higher low, reinforcing the bullish base thesis.
Momentum Deviation Index: Bounce is Maturing
The weekly Momentum Deviation Index confirms:
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Strong Accumulation Surge in April–May
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Early Supply Exhaustion Signal as of June
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Overall: Still in the Accumulation Bias Zone, but showing short-term overextension
This suggests that while the macro bottom may be in, price could cool off before continuation.
Bottom Line
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Macro structure looks constructive
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Short-term correction from $71.98 is likely
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Holding above $53 keeps the uptrend setup intact
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A break above $73+ would confirm reversal and open room toward $85–$150
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