American Express (AXP) has been on a tear lately, pushing toward a potential new high — but under the surface, momentum may already be breaking down. This is a classic inflection zone.
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Price Structure
With daily structure momentum peaking, and key support just beneath current price, the next few sessions will decide whether bulls push toward $333 — or whether a major correction is already underway. $305 is a Key support in the short term.
Structure Momentum Map (Daily vs Weekly)
On the daily map (left), price remains in a bullish sequence of higher highs and higher lows. If that trend holds, bulls could still make one last push toward the $333 zone.
But the weekly map (right) is starting to stall beneath that same level — suggesting the uptrend may be losing strength. This is where momentum often fails before price follows.
Momentum Deviation Index: Supply Exhaustion?
The Momentum Deviation Index (a scaled RSI divergence model) shows a clear bearish divergence forming: price made higher highs in July, but FlowSignal printed lower highs, flashing red.
Even more telling: we saw a Supply Exhaustion signal (red ▼) in late December 2024 — just as price was topping into the red “exit bias” zone.
Unless bulls regain control and break $333 with real force, this signal warns of an incoming reversal.
Summary
The $305 zone remains the key structural level. It’s acted as both resistance (Q1) and now support (May–July), and it sits near a confluence of recent weekly lows.
A close below $305 and $280 would confirm a major trend break — and trigger potential downside toward $200
Where I’m wrong: A confirmed close below $305 followed by a failure to break $281 would suggest the trend break lacks follow‑through — and the $200 target may be off the table (for now).
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